by Roger Bourke White Jr., copyright July 2019
First off, it may not. It may instead choose to follow the Cuban example and continue to remain a low wealth and low surprise community for a long time.
But if change does come it will be big and surprising: Chavismo has been the ruling theme for twenty years now, young Venezuelans have grown up with it as the social standard. This means that if it is replaced it will be a social revolution. It will be like Hugo Chavez taking over Venezuela again, only this time with a different and more progressive and productive theme, hopefully.
If the social revolution happens there will be lots of uncertainty as a new social theme is crafted. This means the transition may also include a blood-letting war (which I've written about in my history section).
This means that if the revolution finally happens Venezuela's neighbors need to be on the alert for a military consequence that will include a years-long war that will be mostly a stalemate.
It is a pattern of history to be watched out for.
--The End--