by Roger B. White Jr.
As the USSR collapsed and China embraced the free market system, it became clear that Kim Il Sung has been rebuilding the Hermit Kingdom. North Korean leaders still act as though outside ideas are not good for Korean people.
Being a Hermit Kingdom is part of Korea's tradition. This concept of holing up behind national boundaries looks hideous and uncomfortable to the West, but perhaps it doesn't look as strange to Koreans themselves.
To Western eyes, time is running out on the Kim dynasty. Mr. Kim hasn't provided much for his people, and it looks as if they'll fall farther and farther behind until they open their boundaries and join the community of nations.
The opening will begin with the older Mr. Kim's death. Those who want to change the system have been waiting for his death. The younger Mr. Kim will be just one of many contenders to rule Korea, and some of those contenders will be in favor of opening North Korea.
There will be chaos following Kim's death. There will be riots in North Korea, and refugees wishing to come south. There will be a power struggle, and a handful of the losers will come to South Korea saying, "Back us, we will democratize North Korea and reunify."
The South Koreans will then face a hard choice: will they support these outcasts? Will the army march north? Or will the South Koreans wait patiently and hope that after the chaos North Korea doesn't simply close up tight again?
This first power struggle will not be a fierce one. It will be a struggle only within the ruling elite because the common North Korean hasn't tasted the fruits of outside contact--dealing with the outside world is still a mysterious unknown to them. The power struggle over opening the country will become a serious one after North Koreans start seeing outside visitors, and after the country is heavily dependent on outside aid. It is the Koreans in Japan and elsewhere shipping money to North Korea that are providing the common Koreans with an outside experience. When these Koreans may visit Korea as well, this will accelerate the learning process.
Germany is one example Korea should look at; Cuba is the other. Cuba should open soon, too. Fidel Castro faces the same isolation as Kim Il Sung. The hardship hasn't toppled him yet, but he has been forced to open Cuba to tourism, and many more Cubans are wondering what "sacrificing for the Revolution" is getting them?