A scenario developed by Roger White, updated Apr 97
Summary:
It's the near future and the thinkable has finally happened. Some North Koreans have said enough is enough, and violence stalks the land. The situation is serious, and US President Bill Clinton has flown to Seoul for a joint meeting at the Blue House with President Kim Young-sam. You have been called in to advise president Kim Young-sam and President Bill Clinton on what to do. As a courtesy to President Clinton (and your English teacher), you will conduct your analysis and make your recommendations in English.
The Situation:
Two days ago phone service to Pyong yang was "temporarily interrupted", and all foreigners were hustled out to the airport on two hours notice. On arriving in Beijing the foreigners coming from Pyong yang on one bus reported seeing in the distance a crowd waving crude placards marching along one of Pyong yang's main streets.
Yesterday, broadcasting on Pyong yang TV suddenly changed. There was a special news announcement that student demonstrators aided by all the people of Pyong yang had seized control of the city. The leader of this revolution called himself Lee Aye-bee, and he vowed to bring democracy to North Korea. He also called for the rapid reunification of Korea.
This TV broadcast is public information, reported on CNN last night. Pyong yang TV is broadcasting, Pyong yang radio is silent, and the phone lines into Pyong yang and most of North Korea are still not working.
What has not been reported by the press is that Lee Aye-bee has called Kim Young-sam by ham radio, and called for Kim Young-sam's immediate aid, military aid. In return, Mr. Lee has offered to hold elections in the North within six months to vote on reunification. He has offered to support Mr. Kim and be his vice-president should he decide to run for president of the unified Korea.
It appears that Kim Jong-il is not in Pyong yang, but is now at the head two armored divisions moving north from the DMZ to quell this uprising. He has been quoted on DMZ loudspeakers as saying, "The generals at Tien Mien Square were nice guys. I'm going to show these Pyong yang upstarts what rule with an iron fist really means."
President Clinton tells you that the CIA has been watching Kim Jong-il's forces by satellite, and they estimate that he will be in position to attack Pyong yang in 48 hours. Who is defending Pyong yang and what forces they have are not known, but satellite photos clearly show large fires in some areas of the city.
The discussion:
The question before you is: What do you advise Kim Young-sam to do, and why?
Here are some examples of choices. Many more choices are possible:
Mobilize the South Korean army and march to Pyong yang right behind Kim Jong-il.
Send rice and good wishes to Lee Aye-bee, and wait to see if he's got any real strength.
Send rice and good wishes to Kim Jong-il, because he and his tanks are sure to win, and maybe he'll feel more like talking about reunification when this is all over.
Call for a joint US-South Korean military intervention because this uprising might lead to nuclear terrorism.
Call for the UN to act, since this is an international matter.
Call for the UN not to act, since this is a Korean matter to be settled by Koreans.
Work together in groups. Take the position of being the advocate for a specific group that is interested in the outcome of this crisis, and present a plan for solving this crisis.
Some examples of interested groups: students, chaebols, Korean citizens, Korean military, Korean CIA, US military, US business, US CIA, Russia, China, Japan, mid-east terrorists, UN, North Korean military, Lee Aye-bee, North Korean citizens, North Korea defectors.